Growth has normalised from its early spike, not stopped — the market is still forecast to compound toward ~$620B by 2030. Crucially, our thesis is not a bet on any one manufacturer's quarterly deliveries. It spans the battery supply chain, the manufacturing platform and the autonomy stack, so value can accrue to the strategy even as individual carmakers rise and fall.
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Electric Vehicles
Electric Vehicles
A Battery That Computes — and Learns to Drive Itself
The automobile is being rebuilt from the ground up. The global electric-vehicle market is on track to expand from roughly $396 billion in 2024 to about $620 billion by 2030, while the most valuable component — the battery — is compounding far faster, with the EV-battery market forecast to climb from ~$92 billion to roughly $199 billion by 2030, a ~22% CAGR. The car is no longer a machine that burns fuel; it is a battery that computes.
Extended Investment doesn't bet on a single carmaker's delivery numbers. We concentrate across the three layers where the value is migrating — battery technology, the software-defined manufacturing platform, and the automotive-AI and autonomy stack that turns the vehicle into a data centre on wheels. Concentration within the theme; diversification across the machine.
Strategy at a Glance
- EV market (2030) $620B
- CAGR 22%
- Battery market $92B→$199B
- Automotive AI (2030) $38.5B
- Autonomy market ~26% CAGR
- Sub-sectors Battery · Platform · Autonomy
The car stopped being a machine that burns fuel. It became a battery that computes — and, increasingly, one that drives itself.
How We Invest — Three Layers of the Machine
Value in the electric vehicle is migrating out of assembly and into the battery and the software. We hold conviction across all three layers, weighted to where the margins and the moats are building.
01
Battery Technology
The most valuable component. The battery is the single most expensive part of an electric vehicle, and its market is compounding faster than the car itself — from ~$92B in 2024 toward ~$199B by 2030, a ~22% CAGR. Lithium-ion dominates today; solid-state is the next-generation catalyst promising greater range and safety. We hold the cell chemists, pack integrators and the materials supply chain beneath them.
02
The Manufacturing Platform
The software-defined vehicle. The global EV market is forecast to reach ~$620B by 2030 as manufacturers and gigafactories turn the car into a sensor-rich, over-the-air-updated platform rather than a static machine. We own the makers and the supply chain building the installed base every other layer rides on.
03
Automotive AI & Autonomy
The car that drives itself. Every autonomous-capable vehicle ships with high-performance AI compute — the automotive-AI market is forecast to grow from ~$18.8B in 2025 to ~$38.5B by 2030, while the autonomous-vehicle market expands from ~$231B toward ~$748B by 2030 (~26% CAGR). Robotaxis and advanced driver assistance move the value to software, compute and sensing, not the steel.
Figures: EV market — MarketsandMarkets; EV-battery market — Grand View Research / MarketsandMarkets; automotive-AI & autonomous-vehicle markets — MarketsandMarkets / Mordor Intelligence. See Sources & Methodology.
Why Now — Cells, Platforms and Autonomy
Three curves are bending at once: battery cost and chemistry, the shift to software-defined manufacturing, and the arrival of commercial autonomy.
- Global EV market on track to ~$620B by 2030
- EV-battery market compounding ~22% a year toward ~$199B by 2030
- Solid-state batteries emerging as the next-gen energy-density catalyst
- Automotive-AI on track from ~$18.8B (2025) to ~$38.5B by 2030
- Autonomous-vehicle market ~$231B → ~$748B by 2030 (~26% CAGR)
$620B
In practice — the 2030 EV Market
The global electric-vehicle market our thesis is sized against — a machine being rebuilt around the battery and the compute inside it. Talk to our team →
Allocator
Questions
Questions
The questions institutional allocators ask us most about this strategy.
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01 Hasn't EV demand slowed?
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02 Why battery, platform and autonomy together?Because the value migrates across them. Early profit sat in assembling cars; it is moving into the battery — the most expensive component, compounding at ~22% a year — and into the software and compute that make the vehicle autonomous. Holding all three layers lets us capture the value wherever it lands rather than guessing which sleeve wins first.
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03 How do allocators access it?Through a separately managed mandate sized to your allocation, or as one pillar of a multi-sector portfolio. We blend battery-materials and cell exposure with listed platform manufacturers and the automotive-AI and sensing names, each sleeve risk-budgeted to your tolerance and actively managed, so the allocation tracks the thesis rather than a single-stock EV bet.
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04 Are these figures sourced?Yes. The EV market and automotive-AI forecasts follow MarketsandMarkets, the EV-battery market size and ~22% CAGR follow Grand View Research, and the autonomous-vehicle trajectory follows Mordor Intelligence. Every figure we cite is verifiable — the full list lives on our Sources & Methodology page.
Figures: EV & automotive-AI markets — MarketsandMarkets; EV-battery market — Grand View Research; autonomous-vehicle market — Mordor Intelligence. See Sources & Methodology.
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The Car Became Compute. We Own the Whole Machine.
Forecast
%
EV-battery market CAGR to 2030